{"id":39715,"date":"2016-05-30T10:00:36","date_gmt":"2016-05-30T02:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/?p=39715"},"modified":"2016-05-27T10:41:07","modified_gmt":"2016-05-27T02:41:07","slug":"%e8%b6%85%e7%b4%9a%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e9%a4%8a%e6%88%90%e8%a1%93","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/?p=39715","title":{"rendered":"\u8d85\u7d1a\u9810\u6e2c\u990a\u6210\u8853"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size:16px;line-height:1.6em;\">\u4fdd\u7f85\uff0e\u8a31\u6885\u514b Paul J.H. Schoemaker<br \/>\n\t\u83f2\u5229\u6d66\uff0e\u6cf0\u6d1b\u514b Philip E. Tetlock<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:16px;line-height:1.6em;\">\u7d44\u7e54\u8207\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u5224\u65b7\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u4e0b\u5217\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u5c0d\u57fa\u672c\u7d71\u8a08\u8ad6\u8b49\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u3001\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u4ed6\u4eba\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u610f\u5716\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u540d\u8b7d\u8003\u91cf\u7b49\u3002\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u5f80\u5f80\u523b\u610f\u6a21\u7cca\u4ee5\u64f4\u5927\u8f49\u571c\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u842c\u4e00\u9810\u6e2c\u6700\u7d42\u662f\u932f\u7684\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4e00\u9805\u670925,000 \u540d\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u8207\u4e00\u767e\u842c\u9805\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u6539\u5584\u4f01\u696d\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u5be6\u52d9\u505a\u6cd5\uff1a\u63d0\u4f9b\u57fa\u672c\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u8207\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u8a13\u7df4\u3001\u5c07\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u5206\u968a\u4ee5\u4fbf\u8a0e\u8ad6\u8207\u8abf\u6574\u9810\u6e2c\u3001\u8ffd\u8e64\u7e3e\u6548\u4e26\u7d66\u4e88\u5373\u6642\u56de\u994b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:16px;line-height:1.6em;\">\u70ba\u6539\u5584\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u6709\u7cfb\u7d71\u5730\u8490\u96c6\u5373\u6642\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u9802\u5c16\u5718\u968a\u5982\u4f55\u505a\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u80cc\u5f8c\u5047\u8a2d\u689d\u4ef6\u3001\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\u3001\u5916\u90e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7b49\u3002\u6210\u529f\u95dc\u9375\u5305\u62ec\u8981\u6c42\u5373\u6642\u7cbe\u6e96\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e26\u8861\u91cf\u9810\u6e2c\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size:16px;line-height:1.6em;\">\u4fdd\u7f85\uff0e\u8a31\u6885\u514b Paul J.H. Schoemaker<\/p>\n<p>\u83f2\u5229\u6d66\uff0e\u6cf0\u6d1b\u514b Philip E. Tetlock<\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:16px;line-height:1.6em;\">\u7d44\u7e54\u8207\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u5584\u65bc\u5224\u65b7\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u9810\u6e2c\u5f80\u5f80\u53d7\u5230\u4e0b\u5217\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u5c0d\u57fa\u672c\u7d71\u8a08\u8ad6\u8b49\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u3001\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u3001\u5f71\u97ff\u4ed6\u4eba\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u610f\u5716\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u540d\u8b7d\u8003\u91cf\u7b49\u3002\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u5f80\u5f80\u523b\u610f\u6a21\u7cca\u4ee5\u64f4\u5927 <span class='read-more'><a href=\"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/?p=39715\" >\u2026\u7e7c\u7e8c\u95b1\u8b80<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"clear-float\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":50,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1770],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39715"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/50"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39715\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}