{"id":11428,"date":"2012-12-26T15:12:30","date_gmt":"2012-12-26T07:12:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/?p=11428"},"modified":"2013-01-03T11:40:34","modified_gmt":"2013-01-03T03:40:34","slug":"%e6%9c%89%e5%a4%a2%e6%9c%80%e7%be%8e%ef%bc%8c%e5%b8%8c%e6%9c%9b%e7%84%a1%e7%aa%ae%ef%bc%8c%e4%ba%ba%e4%ba%ba%e9%83%bd%e6%9c%89%e6%a9%9f%e6%9c%83%e6%88%90%e7%82%ba%e4%ba%94%e6%9c%88%e5%a4%a9%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/?p=11428","title":{"rendered":"\u6709\u5922\u6700\u7f8e\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u7121\u7aae\uff0c\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u6210\u70ba\u4e94\u6708\u5929\uff1f\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size:16px\"><strong><img alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net\/hphotos-ak-prn1\/s720x720\/59047_10151254292244086_803235649_n.jpg\" style=\"width: 720px;height: 592px\" \/>\u6709\u5922\u6700\u7f8e\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u7121\u7aae\uff0c\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u6210\u70ba\u4e94\u6708\u5929\uff1f\uff01<br \/>\n\t\uff0d\u5b58\u6d3b\u8005\u504f\u8aa4 The Survivorship Bias<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u8005\u7684\u80fd\u898b\u5ea6\u7e3d\u662f\u58d3\u5012\u6027\u5730\u9ad8\u904e\u5931\u6557\u8005\u3002\u5a92\u9ad4\u5927\u8086\u50b3\u8aa6\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97<strong>\u4eba\u5011\u5bb9\u6613\u9ad8\u4f30\u7372\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5e0c\u671b<\/strong>\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u53ea\u770b\u5230\u4e94\u6708\u5929\u6eff\u6a94\u7684\u5de1\u8ff4\u6f14\u5531\u6703\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6416\u6efe\u5de8\u661f\u7684\u51dc\u51dc\u5a01\u98a8\u3002\u6b8a\u4e0d\u77e5\u4e00\u500b\u6210\u529f\u6a02\u5718\u80cc\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u767e\u500b\u5931\u6557\u7684\u6a02\u5718\u3002\u5a92\u9ad4\u6c92\u8208\u8da3\u5831\u5c0e\u4ed6\u5011\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u4e0b\u5834\u4e0d\u662f\u786c\u6490\u5c31\u662f\u89e3\u6563\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u5230\u8655\u90fd\u662f\u6210\u529f\u6545\u4e8b\u800c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6eff\u6eff\uff0c\u5c0f\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u5c07\u6dea\u70ba\u6210\u529f\u932f\u89ba\u5e95\u4e0b\u7684\u67d0\u500b\u72a7\u7272\u54c1\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u4f4d\u597d\u53cb\u6e96\u5099\u8981\u958b\u9593\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u525b\u597d\u662f\u5165\u80a1\u7684\u4eba\u9078\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u9019\u6642\u4f60\u55c5\u5230\u4e86\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u5546\u6a5f\uff0c\u4e14\u5e7b\u60f3\u8457\u5982\u679c\u5920\u5e78\u904b\uff0c\u9019\u9593\u516c\u53f8\u8aaa\u4e0d\u5b9a\u6703\u4e00\u98db\u6c96\u5929\u3001\u6210\u70ba\u4e0b \u4e00\u9593\u300c\u5fae\u8edf\u300d\u5462\uff01\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u53c8\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5462\uff1f\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5287\u672c\u662f\uff1a\u9019\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u9023\u7c4c\u8a2d\u90fd\u672a\u80fd\u5b8c\u6210\uff01\u7b2c\u4e8c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5287\u672c\u5247\u662f\uff1a\u4e09\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u56e0\u70ba\u7d93\u71df\u4e0d\u5584\u800c\u5012 \u9589\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u82e5\u662f\u80fd\u5920\u9806\u5229\u633a\u904e\u524d\u4e09\u5e74\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u6703\u8b8a\u6210\u54e1\u5de5\u4e0d\u5230\u5341\u4eba\u7684\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u696d\u3002\u7c21\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u4f60\u88ab\u5a92\u9ad4\u6240\u6563\u64ad\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6210\u529f\u4f01\u696d\u6545\u4e8b\u7d66\u8499\u853d\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u6b64\u985e\u63a8\uff0c\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u70ba\u6578\u53ef\u89c0\u7684\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\u6216\u662f\u738b\u724c\u6559\u7df4\u6642\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u4e5f\u4fdd\u6301\u8457\u61f7\u7591\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5931\u6557\u7684\u4eba\u4e0d\u80fd\u51fa\u66f8\uff0c\u66f4\u7121\u6cd5\u5230\u8655\u5ba3\u63da\u81ea\u5df1\u5931\u6557\u7684\u5fc3\u8def\u6b77\u7a0b\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c<strong>\u82e5\u4f60\u6240\u8655\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u662f\u5728\u5b58\u6d3b\u8005\u9019\u4e00\u908a<\/strong>\uff0c\u7576\u4f60\u9762\u5c0d\u5b58\u6d3b\u8005\u504f\u8aa4\u6642\uff0c\u60c5\u6cc1\u6216\u8a31\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u5c37\u5c2c\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u4f60\u7684\u6210\u529f\u5b8c\u5168\u51fa\u65bc\u5076\u7136\uff0c\u4f60\u4e5f\u6703\u627e\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u529f\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u9ede\uff0c\u4e26\u628a\u9019\u4e9b\u5171\u540c\u9ede<strong>\u786c\u62d7<\/strong>\u6210\u4f60\u6210\u529f\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u662f\u6642\u523b\u4fdd\u6301\u61f7\u7591\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u3002\u8981\u662f\u4f60\u9858\u610f\u8d70\u8a2a\u5931\u6557\u8005\u7684\u5893\u5730\uff08\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u6216\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u90fd\u597d\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8a31\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u90a3\u4e9b\u88ab\u4fe1\u4ee5\u70ba\u771f\u7684\u6210\u529f\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u4e5f\u7d93\u5e38\u5728\u5931\u6557\u8005\u8eab\u4e0a\u9ad4\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5076\u723e\u5728\u54c0\u50b7\u4e4b\u4e2d\u6563\u500b\u5c0f\u6b65\uff0c\u7d42\u6b78\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size:12px\"><span>\u672c\u6587\u6458\u9304\u81ea\u5546\u5468\u51fa\u7248\u300a<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/search.books.com.tw\/exep\/prod_search_redir.php?key=%E6%80%9D%E8%80%83%E7%9A%84%E8%97%9D%E8%A1%93&amp;area=mid&amp;item=0010556649\"  rel=\"mid_name\" title=\" \u601d\u8003\u7684\u85dd\u8853 \uff1a52 \u500b\u975e\u53d7\u8feb\u6027\u601d\u8003\u932f\u8aa4\"><span>\u601d\u8003\u7684\u85dd\u8853\uff1a52 \u500b\u975e\u53d7\u8feb\u6027\u601d\u8003\u932f\u8aa4<\/span><\/a><span>\u300b<br \/>\n\t\u5fb7\u570b\u7387\u5148\u64ca\u6557\u300a\u8cc8\u4f2f\u65af\u50b3\u300b\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u4e9e\u99ac\u905c\u601d\u8003\u5b78\u7fd2\u985eTop1<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size:16px\"><strong>\u6709\u5922\u6700\u7f8e\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u7121\u7aae\uff0c\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u6210\u70ba\u4e94\u6708\u5929\uff1f\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\uff0d\u5b58\u6d3b\u8005\u504f\u8aa4 The Survivorship Bias<\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u8005\u7684\u80fd\u898b\u5ea6\u7e3d\u662f\u58d3\u5012\u6027\u5730\u9ad8\u904e\u5931\u6557\u8005\u3002\u5a92\u9ad4\u5927\u8086\u50b3\u8aa6\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97<strong>\u4eba\u5011\u5bb9\u6613\u9ad8\u4f30\u7372\u5f97\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5e0c\u671b<\/strong>\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u53ea\u770b\u5230\u4e94\u6708\u5929\u6eff\u6a94\u7684\u5de1\u8ff4\u6f14\u5531\u6703\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6416\u6efe\u5de8\u661f\u7684\u51dc\u51dc\u5a01\u98a8\u3002\u6b8a\u4e0d\u77e5\u4e00\u500b\u6210\u529f\u6a02\u5718 <span class='read-more'><a href=\"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/?p=11428\" >\u2026\u7e7c\u7e8c\u95b1\u8b80<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"clear-float\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1770],"tags":[2784,3685,3684,3683],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11428"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11428"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11428\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11428"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11428"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.url.com.tw\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11428"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}